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  • Macaca
    02-21 05:24 PM
    War on middle class is nothing less then a national crisis.

    I was listening to find out the exact statement they use: CNN is the best news on network. Turned off immediately.





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  • obviously
    08-05 07:07 PM
    Good points below.

    Now, FreshEb2, through the handle itself, comes across as a stoker not a sensible person.

    EB2 and EB3 are two very different EMPLOYMENT BASED legal immigration categories. Filing in one category DOES NOT PRECLUDE one from filing in another category, for another *future* job, as long the *future* jobs themselves meet the criteria to qualify for that EB category.

    Coming to tihnk of, the coward parading as RollingFlood has not posted his/her company, EB job posting, and other pieces of information that I had challenged him/her to post. Seriously you coward, come out and post it... this community can help validate whether there really is no US worker to take that position. Now, dont chicken out and fillibuster this with more weak arguments. Post your glorified EB2 job posting for all of us to see ... and let us see if you have illegally gotten ahead in the line ahead of all those hardworking US citizens that have been laid off in the last 2 quarters across all major sectors. C'mon, do it ... do it...

    Also, somewhere you had said that you were an MBA from a top US university. Welcome to the club. Though, I am sad to share the boat with you! Now, look back at the essay you wrote to get into B-School. Are you doing exactly what you claimed you would do after the MBA? Shall we take that up and go back to the school to have them rescind your diploma because you misused the system? One can say you got into an MBA on a fundamentally false premise. So, give back that diploma.

    Also, did you come into the country on a F1 visa? What did you tell the visa officer? That you were going back to your home country, right? Didnt you need to show proof of ties to your home country. Can we take you to court stating that you committed a felony by lying to a Government official regarding matters of homeland security? Seriously. Why not?

    No amount trying to sub-optimize logic to fit your specific narrow needs will make your holier-than-thou arguments even remotely credible, let alone valid in a court of law. What is clear from this 10 page thread, is that we have a few folks like FreshEB2, RollingFlood etc that present themselves as 'high skilled' workers in the US immigration system but clearly lack the basic level of logic to have a factual conversation. Their ladders of inferences are stark and substantive.

    By sub-optimally picking 'argument points' based the 'weakest links' that you invent and trying to super-size that to reflect a larger interest is very weak attempt to preserve your position.

    Go ahead, file a lawsuit. Tell us which case will be hearing it and give us the case number. I WILL PERSONALLY MAKE SURE THAT THE JUDGE ASKS FOR YOUR IMMIGRATION FILE AND CONDUCT A PRIMA FACIE INQUIRY INTO THE BASIS OF YOUR PRIMARY PETITION, INCLUDING ALL ASPECTS LIKE ADVERTISEMENT, NUMBER OF RESUMES RECEIVED, etc.. I WILL FILE A PETITION WITH THE JUDGE TO HAVE ANOTHER ADVERTISEMENT POSTED, THIS TIME, WITH RESPONSES TO BE EXAMINED BY THE JUDGE and NOT YOUR FAVORITE IMMIGRATION ATTORNEY. SERIOUSLY. BRING IT ON. WE SHOULD RESPOND TO YOU IN COURT. WHETHER CIVIL OR IMMIGRATION.

    You had also mentioned that you would be filing a 'public interest litigation'. That is a very Indian concept. PIL type cases work differently in the US. You dont just run to your local court and claim 'PIL' because you felt wronged. Any court in the US would deem your case as narrowly defined to challenge legislation and throw you out because judiciary cannot legislate.

    Obviously, you grossly underestimated the intellect of this group and thought your big words and b-board bravado would scare people. :D

    Come on!, give me a break. You guys are now worried that EB3 will spoil your (what I still consider, ill gotten) party by PD porting. You now come up with arguments about what is EB2.

    First argument: "EB2 requires advanced degree"

    If that is the case, there is no one who is eligible for Eb2, as "Advanced degrees" is not a degree that is offered by any university in US. Mostly the ones I know offer, Masters and PHD and likes. No one says I am offering "advanced degree". ;)

    Further more, advanced degree is subjective. Bachelors is advanced compared to Diploma, which is advanced compared to 10th passed, which is advanced compared someone who failed 10th.


    Second: It is not fair to allow EB3s to port.
    It is in the law. that part is not grounds for a lawsuit. If you still want to complain, then complain about the fact that AC21 allows you to jump jobs without even getting your GC.

    Third (these are my own points)

    When people got their F1, they said there are here without immigrant intention. Why is USCIS giving them H1 and then also accepting GCs for them. Come to think of it, OPT is not required by any university for granting the degree, so why are F1s even allowed to work??


    The point I am trying to make is that if you try to open one can of worms, everyone else has a Costo or a Sams club to go to and buy a boat load of cans of worms to open - that is going to put you in a bad situation.





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  • gapala
    06-07 04:46 PM
    Very interesting discussion going on in this thread.

    Can some of the gurus here point to some websites for fundamentals of home buying as well as investment in general ?

    Appreciate your feedback.

    http://homebuying.about.com/od/buyingahome/qt/0307Buyinghome.htm





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  • Macaca
    09-29 04:06 PM
    A Day in the Life: Restaurateurs Hit the Hill (http://rollcall.com/issues/53_34/news/20220-1.html) By Anna Palmer | ROLL CALL, September 27, 2007

    Like hundreds of Washington, D.C., trade associations that shuttle their members to town every year for a bit of precious face time with lawmakers and staff, the National Restaurant Association has its once-a-year shot at putting a live face on its most pressing concerns.

    On Wednesday, the NRA was ready. Its 700 delegates, who had spent the day before at the Grand Hyatt prepping their talking points, fanned out over the Capitol for 332 meetings, including some 284 lawmakers.

    That may seem like an extraordinary show of force. But restaurant owners, like real estate agents and bankers and even florists, all share something in common: a powerful membership presence in every Congressional district.

    Still, the results of the day, like many constituent experiences, were decidedly mixed, as the restaurateurs touched on some of Congress' most sensitive subjects: comprehensive immigration reform, food safety and lowering the number of years it takes to depreciate their buildings.

    Members arrived by state associations and tended to concentrate on their state delegations.

    For the Pennsylvania group, 8 a.m. Wednesday was go time. With 20 restaurateurs swarming the Capitol, they were meeting once again with Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), whom they see as an ally on immigration reform, and freshman Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), a first for many of them. That's in addition to 14 of the 19 Members of the Pennsylvania Congressional delegation.

    Arming themselves with the facts that restaurants are the second-largest private-sector employer, the 2,100-member association wanted answers, mainly about immigration and what Congress is going to do.

    As the lobbyists mingled outside Casey's office, for many it was a time to reacquaint themselves with old friends and competitors. Most were loose; they weren't novices on Capitol Hill. They've been here before and were ready to get right to the point.

    Led by state President James Flanigan, an intense, impeccably dressed man who has spent his entire career in the food service industry, the group was realistic about their role in national politics.

    "The NRA is like the NFL. [The state restaurant associations] are all the backups of the NFL," said Joseph DiSalvo, owner of DiSalvo's Station Restaurant and incoming president of the state association, as they waited in the hallway to meet with Casey.

    But while lobbying here is important, the Pennsylvania association, which is headquartered in in the state capital, Harrisburg, sees its role as more intimately involved in state-level politicking than federal.

    "Our mission is Harrisburg," said Flanigan. "They can do a lot more damage to us."

    Currently, for example, the city of Philadelphia is deciding whether to require trans-fat labeling on menus, which Flanigan describes as "feel-good legislation" that doesn't really work, and Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh, which is considering a 10 percent drink tax.

    "More and more issues are driven down from the federal to the state and now the local level" Patrick Conway, the state association's top staffer, said.

    The group also is dealing with a proposed statewide smoking ban, which it favors. But, the restaurant industry hit a roadblock earlier this year after the tavern association and casinos lobbied heavily for exemptions.

    "My own opinion is I hate the government telling me what to do," said Flanigan, of the smoking ban. "But exemptions put us at a competitive disadvantage. It's the old story of leveling the playing field."

    After filing into the office adjacent to Casey's main entrance in the Russell building, the group settled in around a long boardroom table, with others perched around the walls.

    But there's no Casey. Instead, the lobbyists had to make due with a staffer who works on many of the issues, including immigration reform.

    The group has been prepped by lobbyists from the D.C. office of the National Restaurant Association to stay on their talking points: immigration reform, food safety and the restaurant depreciation tax.

    "For immigration the primary goal is to express our frustration with the inability of Congress to tackle this obviously significant issue," said Brendan Flanagan, the NRA's vice president of federal relations, in an interview.

    Bill Baker, an NRA board member and Pennsylvania restaurateur, led off the discussion, pointing to how comprehensive immigration reform is important not only to their bottom line, but also in making sure employers are on the right side of the law.

    He followed up with horror stories of under-staffed restaurants that can only seat half the restaurant because there aren't enough workers.

    Baker's frustration is echoed by fellow association members, including Michael Passalacqua, former state association president and owner of Angelo's Italian restaurant in Washington, Pa.

    "We are not document experts," Passalacqua said. "The only way the restaurant industry is going to be staffed is a matter of stealing each other's employees."

    With just minutes left before the staffer had to exit for another meeting, the delegates had little time to address food safety and depreciation.

    As the lobbyists left Casey's office, many are frustrated about not getting more specific answers about when immigration reform is going to happen. But, they held out hope for Specter, whom they see as a real advocate on immigration reform.

    After trucking to the Hart Senate Office Building, the delegation was led into Specter's office for the much-anticipated meeting. For many of the delegates who have been attending the national conference for many years, it wasn't the first time they've met with the Senator.

    Less than 10 minutes after Specter joined them, they exited the meeting and frustration from some of the members mounted.

    Even Conway, the state association chief executive who so far has kept a stiff upper lip all morning helping coordinate the delegates and keep everyone on message, diplomatically explained that Specter "didn't have much time."

    But with the meeting so short, and no one from the delegation given the opportunity to ask a single question, others are slightly more frazzled.

    "The time frame was just so small, we couldn't get any information. I'm disappointed because I had a lot questions. There's no time with only 10 minutes," Passalacqua said.



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  • Macaca
    02-27 08:12 AM
    Thank You, Mr. Chairman (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/26/AR2007022601142_2.html).

    If it's good to be a Democrat on K Street these days, it's even better to be a Democrat who once worked for a current chairman of a congressional tax-writing committee. That's clearly where the money is.

    Timothy E. Punke, a former trade aide to Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) of the Senate Finance Committee, was named a partner of Monument Policy Group, a lobbying firm. His new clients include heavyweights such as Microsoft and the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America.

    Former Baucus chief of staff Jeffrey A. Forbes of Cauthen Forbes & Williams also has a slew of new clients. They include Merck, Genentech, Ford and Intuit.

    William A. Signer, a former staffer to Chairman Charles B. Rangel (D-N.Y.) of the House Ways and Means Committee, has a new job -- managing director of health-care and tax practices at Carmen Group. "His experience in understanding Chairman Rangel's goals and motivations are invaluable to clients," said David M. Carmen, president of the firm. Signer's ties to Rangel, Carmen added, were "definitely a factor" in his hiring.





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  • paskal
    07-14 05:37 PM
    Thanks. I will look into it further when I get a chance. the number of GC granted in a year is complicated- and for the moment I speak offhand so correct me if needed. Till 2005, the recapture clouded the numbers. After that EB3 benefited from a Schedule A recapture that went almost entirely to EB3, a lot to EB3 Philipenes and a good chunk to EB3 India.

    AFAIK last year though, once that was ll over and vertical spillover was implemented, EB2/EB3 Inid should both have got only the strict country quota mandated GC numbers.

    Anway- offhand as I said...gotto rum.




    Paskal,

    Your post made me look again into the text. Alright, I see some things now, doesnt fully explain the lack of EB3 numbers but let me summarize..

    EB2-ROW-> EB2(general-pool). I have always conceded that this should be the case. (for those who disagree, see my initial posts).

    My point always has been on the spillover of EB1 numbers, that very clearly is to be shared amongst EB2 and EB3 (and if you apply USCIS "new" yard-stick), this will be first-come-first serve, so pretty much will help the most regressed category. However, it is my contention that in making the change of the Veritcal/Horizontal spillover (is there any "memo" on this?), USCIS went a step further than what they should have done. They denied EB1 spillover to EB3.


    For the rest EB3ers, here is the relevant post that supports EB2-ROW to Eb2->general-pool. But it does not say anything about EB1 numbers


    "If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limit ....



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  • unitednations
    03-26 04:45 PM
    UN - As you are also a beneficiary of AC21 - what is your take on wrongful denials of 485 for AC21 cases that need to be resolved by MTR? Is it a training issue?

    The issues of straight 485 denials have been going on for some time. It is a training issue/money making issue (ie., motion to roepen fees).

    Recently; I haven't seen USCIS denying 485's based on company revoking 140; they are sending request for evidence.

    Every person 485 that was denied inappropriately who was eligible for ac21 all eventually had their cases reopened. Problem is if you are outside the country when it happens and you have to use AP to come back in or are renewing your ead or in process of renewing EAD then that is when things become tricky and the anxiety starts.

    Once again; every person I know had their cases reopened; they just had some bumps on the road waiting for it to be reopened.





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  • unitednations
    03-24 02:39 PM
    UN - why do you think USCIS allows

    (1) File for h1b from consulting company - when they think there is an issue
    (2) Allow labor substitution - when they think it is not good
    (3) Allow eb3 to eb2 porting - when they think it is not good
    ....
    ....
    ....

    the list can go on

    Why do you think people who are following law - not liked by USCIS?

    I am not blaming USCIS or not poking at them or your interpretation.

    I personally see that if you are not properly represented either by company or my a good Attorney - you are bound to have issues.

    Right now USCIS is giving everyone a hard time.

    I didn't even think that getting rid of labor substitution was a good thing. Much of the issues related to labor substgitution had to do with IT jobs. Although IT jobs take up a good number of greencards; it impacted other companies/people who weren't doing anything wrong with it. It was a first step in making eb harder.

    I am a pretty good advocate of the staffing companies. Kill staffing companies and h-1b and employment base greencard is finished for people from india. I don't think many people realize the implications of what is going on. Staffing companies are the lifeline for employment base IT and for nurses. Thre would be no more retrogressoin as people wouldn't be able to come here. All the people who are here in so called permanent jobs will also eventually get squeezed (laid off; company mergers; promotions; more rules like tarp, etc., and they will eventually also stop doing greencards except for the most senior of senior people).

    People really need to be careful right now.



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  • rbharol
    04-07 04:37 PM
    Is IV core planning to get in touch with Compete america to find what they
    think about this bill and what is their plan of action?





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  • axp817
    03-26 05:52 PM
    Does this mean that H1B is also location specific?

    Per my understanding, it absolutely is. An LCA amendment has to be filed each time there is a location change outside of commutable distance from the original location for which the H-1B was filed.



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  • NKR
    04-14 03:39 PM
    Where do you get the idea that the child will loose the life in apartments and then get back after buying a house?:confused:

    Unfortunately time will never move in reverse and will move in just one direction. A childhood gone is gone. It will never come back. We all want good things for our kids. My perception of good thing is different from yours. If my kid says that he wants to live in an apartment I will move to an apartment, that�s a given.


    It would be nice if we can buy the house on the day one when we join the job. Or even nicer if our parents got us a house in US before we came here:D.

    Fantasizing is ok but when you are dreaming, you cannot have sweet dreams all the time, sometimes you will have nightmares..


    Unfortunately there are circumstances that prevent us buying a house. The biggest one is this bubble and the madness of multiple bidding that insanely pushed the real estate prices, all the while the realtors and mortgage brokers where making 300K or 500K yearly income selling shoe boxes for half a million and generating slogans like "you will be priced out forever", "they are not manufacturing any more land", "housing is always a good investment", "renting is throwing away money".

    Agreed. The decision to buy rests on an individual and to his/her situation, no one wants to buy when things are not conducive.





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  • rsdang
    08-29 11:00 AM
    A guy calls his buddy, the horse rancher, and says he's sending a friend over to look at a horse.

    His buddy asks, "How will I recognize him?"

    "That's easy; he's a midget with a speech impediment."

    So, the midget shows up, and the guy asks him if he's looking for a male or female horse.
    "A female horth."

    So he shows him a prized filly.

    "Nith lookin horth. Can I thee her eyeth"?

    So the guy picks up the midget and he gives the horse's eyes the once over.

    "Nith eyeth, can I thee her earzth"?

    So he picks the little fella up again, and shows him the horse's ears.

    "Nith earzth, can I see her mouf"?

    The rancher is getting pretty ticked off by this point, but he picks him up again and shows him the horse's mouth.

    "Nice mouf, can I see her twat"?

    Totally mad as fire at this point, the rancher grabs him under his arms and rams the midget's head as far as he can up the horse's fanny, pulls him out and slams him on the ground.

    The midget gets up, sputtering and coughing.
    "Perhapth I should rephrase that.
    Can I thee her wun awound a widdlebit"?



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  • gcisadawg
    12-27 01:44 AM
    Alisa,

    Thanks for your posts. I'm glad to have a decent exchange of thoughts with you. I agree with you partly that 'non-state' actors are responsible and not Zardari Govt.. But Who created the non-state actors in the first place? Instead of paying unemployment benefits, who offered them job portability to Kashmir? Their H1B shouldnt have been renewed at all after they came on bench. How can a parent not be responsible for the errant child? The world wants to neutralize the errant child....but for the parent a child is a child after all and that too the one that served its interests once. If this child is abandoned, can future child ( with same objective) be created with the same ease?

    Those are the questions that are haunting many Indians on the forums.

    But I salute you and other folks for keeping this conversation civil.

    Kudos,
    GCisaDawg





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  • unitednations
    03-24 04:04 PM
    No, they figured out that it is consulting companies that are exploiting loopholes. Tell me what proof you have that ALL consulting companies are complying with H-1B requriements.

    Is benching that happens in consulting legal? Is paying salary according to prevailing wages in Maine and sending the contractor to work in Manhattan legal? Please tell me how these practises by desi consulting firms are legal.

    And you're telling me I am ignorant! You're funny :D

    Every year; before tax deadline IRS issues a few press releases on arrrests/convictions for tax crimes.

    They time it just so they can get it out to taxpayers prior to completing their tax returns that they should think twice before they try anything funny.


    Now; I can tell you that most companies were not diligent in getting LCA's in different locations. It is not a big crime of not getting LCA's in different locations. However, if people are getting paid lower amount in a different location then what that LCA would have been then you have a problem.

    If companies stick with giving $60k in salaries then most laws in h-1b go away and even if you don't have LCA for other location; you would have been getting paid more.

    Now; I do know some candidates who worked for those iowa companies. They transferred h-1b on same day that news broke out. I looked at their w-2 and paystubs and they were working at a higher rate jurisdiction. However; they were getting paid considerable sums in per diems. On paper it showed they may have only been getting paid $45K but in reality they were getting paid a lot more. All the company has to do is make the per diem taxable and it would count as h-1b wage and that will get rid of most of the trouble they are currently in. It was a case of employer and employee greed but at high level it wouldn't have harmed anybody; just on paper it didn't look right.

    Hardly anyone at a staffing company will be making less then $60K unless they are trying to do things in a tax free way. If this was the only issue in the iowa compoanies then i am pretty sure this was an attempt to make a big splash which will slowly get settled in a quiet way.

    Sort of what happened with Arthur Anderson in Enron. AA got convicted for obstruction of justice; whole thing fell apart; they lost employees, clients, the firm; pensions, etc. After appeals they won and the governmnet impacted so many peoples lives for nothing.



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  • supreet
    06-07 04:52 PM
    I think it really is a matter of personal choice. A house is much more than a mere investment. For people like us it adds another layer of complications
    due to our status (or rather...lack of status).

    We are in Bay Area (San Jose Metro area) and were paying around $2000 in rent. We just bought a condo where our payments (mortgage + Taxes + HoA) are going
    to be around 2300. Hopefully we will be getting back around 400-500 in taxes and this makes it a good deal. However only 15 days after moving into our
    new house, I was laid off and now our biggest concern is if I am not able to get a job in next few weeks and if we have to go back we will be almost
    80k down the hole.





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  • senthil1
    04-07 11:35 AM
    If H1b quota is increased last 2 years it could have done easily as quota was reached much before the start of year. Without union support same thing is going to happen this year as last year. IV members has to wait years to get gc. They will use H1b as shield to gc reform and no one will get anything. Possiblity is H1b and GC provisions can be passed without much visiblity when CIR is passed. Majority of US people does not want unlimited immigration in any section whether legal or illegal. Opinion polls show that. US people wanted moderate increase in immigration and that is reflected in congress but pro immigrants want unlimited number in legal and illegal. That is the problem


    I am glad IV is taking a strong stand against this bill. IV should work with Compete America (they have more of a vested interests in this) to make sure this bill doesn't see the light of day.

    This bill is introduced by 'Pro-Illegal,pro-union and protectionist' section of Democratic party and 'Anti-immigration at all cost' section of the Republican party. I believe both these groups are fringe elements in both parties. But they could use this bill as a bargain chip for CIR and might get it passed because of it. So we should not take this lightly even if we might not be screwed by this. It will definitely hurt people coming behind us.

    Only reform H1b needs is to increase the quota or have no quota. And also to tie the H1b to the worker and not to the employee. And I dont see any in this bill.



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  • gjoe
    07-15 06:55 AM
    I would like to first applaud Pani for this effort. I strongly support his initative. I think his letter is original and from his heart. It is more authentic and human than what some on this forum are suggesting here. I think his gut feeling on this one is more important than the calculated steps IV has been taking so far.
    These kind of authentic letters from members like pani would give IV a more strong foundation to focus their energy. I think all those who want to write letters to the President, Senator, Congressmen, USCIS, DOL, DOS, DOJ, etc should do so and also should write the letter on their own instead of copying one. The reasons, sentiments and purpose will add more flavour to the whole thing. I would go one step further to suggest that some should write the letter in Spanish, French, Mandarin, Hindi, Urdu, etc, etc, if they think that they can express themselves better in their own language.
    Pani once again I would like to say that you are doing the right thing.

    PS: When the ship is sinking everyone wants to escape but the one who is aggresive to save himself has more chance of living than the other who is waiting for someone to save him.





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  • sanju
    05-16 11:26 PM
    Looks like, the letter sent out to India based business houses by the US senators has surprised the Commerce minister of India, Kamalnath. He is going take this up with US in the global trade meet at Brussels.

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Kamal_Nath_surprised_on_H1-B_visa_issue/articleshow/2055323.cms


    Kamalnath will do us all and the 9 companies a great service by staying out of this debate. He has already contributed by making "ignorant" statements like 'H-1B is a outsource visa". This guy has no clue about the issue at hand and he simply talks in broad strokes. If he jumps into the debate, that could be the last straw to break the camel's back. We will all be better off without him.





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  • paskal
    04-07 05:27 PM
    Can there be a differentiation between extensions/renewals/company changes and new H1bs?

    In some sense there already is, since the former are not subject to cap, while the latter are.

    So, why not extend the same argument to other situations?
    Get an LCA and impose all kinds of restrictions on new H-1Bs, but don't apply these on existing H-1Bs, especially if they have had their labors filed.

    That way, they don't get rid of existing H1B employees.
    They only make it harder for new people to get H1bs. Which, it is my understanding, is not our fight.


    I agree, new H1b is not our concern..well not directly or immediately.
    maybe the way to approach this is to ask that a PERM/LC once approved be considered as fulfilling the requirement for any certification needed for the job- in any case if it's the same process, it amounts to useless duplication to keep certifying a job again and again...





    gjoe
    07-14 07:00 PM
    If you can show that EB3 I from 2004 was approved in 2005 or 2006 you can challenge USCIS if you have a older PD, no matter if you filed your I485 at that time or not.
    You have a strong case if you can prove that USCIS went about processing application and issuing GC in a disorderly fashion and due to that your application with a earlier priority date has not been processed.

    My 2paisa here, Good Luck





    Macaca
    05-01 05:56 PM
    In growing Chinese dominance, a wake-up call for America (http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/in-growing-chinese-dominance-a-wake-up-call-for-america/2011/04/27/AF7i3zGF_story.html) By Arvind Subramanian | The Washington Post

    The world’s two economic superpowers will meet soon for the third installment of their Strategic and Economic Dialogue. Beyond the specifics, the real issue for the United States and the world is China’s looming economic dominance. President Obama’s State of the Union address, after President Hu Jintao’s visit in January, showed the level of anxiety that policymakers feel about China as a potential rival and perhaps a threat, with growing economic, military and political power, including its bankrolling of American debt. But judging from the reaction to the president’s speech, that threat is not viewed as imminent. The same was said, some pointed out, of the rise of Russia and Japan, 40 and 20 years ago, respectively, and those threats turned out to be false alarms.

    But what if the threat is actually greater than policymakers suppose?

    According to the International Monetary Fund, for example, total U.S. gross domestic product in 2010 was $14.7 trillion, more than twice China’s $5.8 trillion, making the average American about 11 times more affluent than the average Chinese. Goldman Sachs does not forecast the Chinese economy overtaking that of the United States until 2025 at the earliest. Americans also draw satisfaction from their unmatched strengths of an open society, an entrepreneurial culture, and world-class universities and research institutions.

    But these beliefs may be overly sanguine. The underlying numbers that contribute to them are a little misleading because they are based on converting the value of goods and services around the world into dollars at market exchange rates.

    It has long been recognized that using the market exchange rate to value goods and services is misleading about the real costs of living in different countries. Several goods and services that are not traded across borders (medical care, retail services, construction, etc.) are cheaper in poorer countries because labor is abundant. Using the market exchange rate to compare living standards across countries understates the benefits that citizens in poor countries enjoy from having access to these goods and services. Estimates of purchasing power parity take account of these differing costs and are an alternative, and for some purposes a better, way of computing and comparing standards of living and economic output across countries.

    My calculations (explained in greater detail on the Peterson Institute Web site) show that the Chinese economy in 2010, adjusted for purchasing power, was worth about $14.8 trillion, surpassing that of the United States. And, on this basis, the average American is “only” four times as wealthy as the average Chinese, not 11 times as rich, as the conventional numbers suggest.

    The different approaches to valuing economic output and resources are not just of theoretical interest. They have real-world significance, especially in the balance of power and economic dominance. The conventional numbers would suggest that the United States has three times the capability of China to mobilize real military resources in the event of a conflict. The numbers based on purchasing-power parity suggest that conventional estimates considerably exaggerate U.S. capability. To the extent that the service of soldiers and other domestically produced goods and services constitute real military resources, the purchasing-power parity numbers must also be taken into account.

    The economic advantage China is gaining will only widen in the future because China’s gross domestic product growth rate will be substantially and consistently greater than that of the United States for the near future. By 2030, I expect the Chinese economy to be twice as large as that of the United States (in purchasing-power parity dollars).

    Moreover, China’s lead will not be confined to GDP. China is already the world’s largest exporter of goods. By 2030, China’s trade volume will be twice that of the United States. And, of course, China is also a net creditor to the United States.

    The combination of economic size, trade and creditor status will confer on China a kind of economic dominance that the United States enjoyed for about five to six decades after World War II and that Britain enjoyed at the peak of empire in the late 19th century.

    This will matter in two important ways. America’s ability to influence China will be seriously diminished, which is already evident in China’s unwillingness to change its exchange rate policy despite U.S. urging. And the open trading and financial system that the United States fashioned after World War II will be increasingly China’s to sustain or undermine.

    The new numbers, the underlying realities they represent and the future they portend must serve as a wake-up call for America to get its fiscal house in order and quickly find new sources of economic dynamism if it is not to cede its preeminence to a rising, perhaps already risen, China.

    Arvind Subramanian is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute and the author of a forthcoming book on China’s economic dominance


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